Why is Big Tech breaking records, but wary of the future?

Author: Alpamys Darkenbayev

Managing Partner Dasco Technology

20200504

The Big Four companies - Big Tech - are experiencing a real sales boom. Of course, a certain growth was to be expected after many budget and private organizations switched to the online mode. However, the income of technology giants in the first quarter turned out to be higher than even the most optimistic forecasts.

The e-commerce flagship, online retailer Amazon has increased delivery of goods by 60% at once. Under quarantine conditions, this type of trade in the U.S. proved to be literally non-alternative. Moreover, Amazon has invested $600 million in Covid-19-related products, such as personal protective equipment. The profits from this investment could grow to $4 billion very soon.

The use of the Google search engine increased at the same rate as the spread of the pandemic. Searches for information about the coronavirus were four times higher than search activity during the Super Cup, the National Football League finals in the United States.

Facebook reported an amazing 100 million daily users across all of its apps. The company attributes this to the launch of a new relatively secure video conferencing service, an inflow of online shoppers and "remote" workers.

Even Apple, which experts predicted a failure in sales of the new economy version of the iPhone, managed to earn 11 billion dollars in three months.

The rise in Big Tech stocks has led to a sharp recovery in the stock market. Amazon stock has grown by 44% since mid-March, Facebook by 23%, while Google and Apple has grown by 15% and 14%, respectively.

But what is remarkable is that companies are not celebrating success, but preparing for the most negative scenarios. They assume that it will be the second quarter when the main economic blow from the prolonged lockdown around the world will come.

Apple, on the other hand, cannot clearly predict the market situation and has taken an unusual "silent" position.

Amazon complains about the increasing complexity of deliveries and the need to constantly test employees for the coronavirus. The company has already warned that it could lose $1.5 billion in the current quarter.

Google claims too short-term contracts and refuses to show ads in pandemic-related material.

Facebook is forecasting a prolonged economic downturn that could halt future sales. The company has already cut its annual spending plans by $3 billion.

In a situation where even the big tech giants are preparing for negative scenarios on a wave of super profits, it is important for most other companies to start calculating post-quarantine risks as early as possible.