How does the corona crisis affect Kazakhstan's labor market?

Author: Takhir Aslyaliyev

Partner Dasco Strategy

According to a report in the government, the situation with the coronovirus has stabilized. We hope that sooner or later this problem, which has become a national tragedy, will be solved. At the same time, the pandemic has created another problem related to jobs in the labor market. Obviously, workers in different professions do not suffer equally as a result of the pandemic. Let's try to look at the "portrait" of Kazakhstan's labor market.

Our country has a relatively low share of quality jobs. Workers with high qualifications (level 4 and 5) in the Kazakhstani labor market are only about 30% of 8.8 million. The vast majority of jobs in Kazakhstan correspond to the average (third) level of skills. While high-skilled workers have an easier transition to remote work, it is the workers with medium and low skills that are severely affected.

Taking into account the second quarantine regime, four key factors affecting the labor market are worth highlighting.

The first is that employees have savings, regular income (stable cash flow).

The second factor is the frequency of physical contact during work activities (between employees, with consumers, customers, suppliers, etc.).

The third factor is the nature of the profession's work: intellectual or physical, what is the area of knowledge used, what tools and equipment are used.

The fourth factor is the importance of the professional group in overcoming the “corona” crisis (maintaining the life-supporting infrastructure and security of the country).

Based on the analysis of these four factors, we can see that the most stable is the first group, which includes seven professional subgroups with 4-5 skill levels (just under 30% of the workforce). In this group of "seven" at least 70% of specialists have the ability to successfully transition to remote work. Only a small proportion of them may temporarily or completely lose their jobs.

The second group represents about 34% of the labor market. This group includes workers in healthcare, manufacturing and assembly, construction, utilities and mining, agriculture, security, inspection and control. These professions, too, are largely protected from job loss, since the country really needs them. At the same time, representatives of this group are forced to operate on the front line, which poses a risk to their health - the nature of work in the current reality does not allow them to switch to a remote format.

The largest and the least qualified group accounts for about 37% of the total labor force, and it has already been hit hard by the crisis. The main losses in the labor market have been in this group, and now, during the second lockdown and with its extension for two more weeks, workers in this group are again under attack. We are talking primarily about workers in sales, entertainment and sports, transportation, food preparation and service, installation, operation and repair, social care and cleaning.