Due to the current demographic situation and increased internal migration, it has become more difficult to create comfortable learning conditions in Kazakhstan’s schools. Many educational institutions still operate on a three-shift schedule, and students are often forced to study in emergency buildings. In densely populated regions, the number of students exceeds the designed capacity of school buildings, classrooms are overcrowded, and the alphabet is running out of letters to designate parallel first-grade classes.
We conducted an assessment of the expected shortage of student seats over the next decade and tried to calculate how many new schools need to be built to avoid this shortage, ensuring equal opportunities for comfortable learning for children, regardless of where they live. Our estimates take into account regional forecasts for demographics, migration, and urbanization, the age structure of students, and the proportion of 9th-grade graduates who continue their education. We also considered current construction rates and the need to eliminate the three-shift system, as well as replacing schools in poor technical condition (in adapted buildings, emergency schools, adobe, wooden structures, and others).
One of the main trends in this area is that the number of students is growing, but the number of schools is decreasing.
Due to the demographic boom over the past ten years, the number of schoolchildren has increased by 1.3 million, and the pressure on educational infrastructure will continue to grow. In 2016, the number of births exceeded 400,000 for the first time in 28 years, and in 2020, birth rates reached their highest level since 1987. As a result, the number of first-graders in the coming years will be 400-450 thousand, and the total number of schoolchildren will exceed 4 million.
However, the educational infrastructure is not keeping up with demographic changes.
Despite the rapid growth of new school construction over the last five years, it only partially covers the influx of new students. During this period, 504,000 new student seats were created in two shifts, while the number of students increased by 715,000. As a result, we are facing a shortage of student seats, overcrowded classrooms, increased workload for teachers, which ultimately affects the quality of education.
Moreover, given the current construction rates, it is expected that the shortage of student seats will not be resolved even in the next decade.
Over the past ten years, the shortage of student seats has increased by 2.3 times, reaching 270,000 seats. According to our estimates, due to population growth and internal migration alone, by 2033, the shortage may increase 2.7 times, reaching 722,000 student seats. Therefore, there is a risk that nearly one in five students will have to study in uncomfortable conditions.
This could negatively affect the effectiveness of the educational process and equal opportunities for subsequent professional development.
Considering the average number of student seats in newly built schools over the past five years (71,000 units), it is expected that it will take more than ten years to cover this shortage.
Source: Calculations by Dasco Group based on data from BNS ASPiR, Ministry of Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan, forecasts from the Labor Resources Development Center
In addition to demographics, it is important to consider the technical condition of the educational infrastructure. Currently, 177 schools are located in buildings over 70 years old, and some students study in adobe schools and poorly adapted buildings.
The shortage could reach 1 million student seats in ten years, with more than 90% of the anticipated shortage falling on urban schools.
The question is that today 59% of children study in urban schools, but in ten years, this share will increase to 65%. According to forecasts, by 2033, the number of urban students will increase by 20% to 2.8 million, while the number of rural students will decrease by 9% to 1.5 million.
In the next five years, without new schools, the shortage in cities could increase by an average of 72,000 seats annually, and by 2033, there is a risk of a shortage of places for 663,000 students.
In rural areas, the shortage of student seats is expected to gradually decrease due to urbanization and demographic trends in the regions. However, over the next five years, we estimate that the shortage will still remain high.
Another important aspect is the forecasted increase in the uneven distribution of the shortage of student seats across regions. Over the past five years, about 70% of the shortage has been concentrated in cities of national significance and the southern regions.
In addition to the rise in birth rates, migration to major cities—Astana, Almaty, and Shymkent—is expected to grow, which could lead to a situation where, in ten years, these cities will face a shortage of school seats for 38% of students.
Source: Calculations by Dasco Group experts based on data from BNS ASPiR, Ministry of Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan, forecasts from the Labor Resources Development Center
In southern regions, 70% of the shortage currently falls on rural schools, where the number of students is expected to decrease. As a result, by 2033, 75% of the shortage in southern regions may be concentrated in urban schools. According to our forecasts, the share of the shortage in urban schools will also increase in the west, from 58% to 71%.
Due to the decrease in the number of students, in some regions, the shortage of student seats may not be as critical, especially in the northern regions, but over the next five years, it may remain at a high level.
In 2023, given the current shortage of student seats, we estimate that the country lacked 347 schools with a total design capacity of 189,000 student seats in one shift. Additionally, 353 problem schools, requiring replacement, were in operation.
By 2033, more than half of the new schools need to be built in the southern regions, including Almaty and Shymkent—364 schools in total.
In total, the construction of new schools will require 4.1 trillion tenge over the next ten years, with 2.2 trillion tenge allocated for rural areas and 1.9 trillion tenge for cities.
Source: Calculations by Dasco Group experts based on data from BNS ASPiR, Ministry of Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan
Given the average construction rates of new schools in recent years (89 units annually), our forecasts suggest that it will take more than ten years to cover the shortage of schools and student seats. Additionally, the demand for new schools is expected to increase due to wear and tear.
Furthermore, according to our estimates, in five years, a significant challenge will be the increased workload on the teaching staff, specifically primary school and 10th-11th grade teachers. The total number of students in these grades may increase by 266,000.
Source: Data from the “Wages of Workers in the Republic of Kazakhstan by Major Professions and Positions (2023)”
Source: Calculations by Dasco Group based on data from BNS ASPiR, Ministry of Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan, forecasts from the Labor Resources Development Center
Currently, there are 342,200 teachers in Kazakhstan’s schools, with a shortage of 5,000 educators. Considering the forecasted number of students, by 2028, Kazakhstan may need an additional 59,000 teachers. Additionally, considering the retirement of teachers (in 2018, 25% of educators were over 50 years old), an additional 80,000 teachers may be needed. Therefore, over the next five years, the demand for new teachers is estimated at around 144,000.
